Population Myths -India China USA Europe Japan
79May 23rd 2010
Is it created by politicians, administrators to hide their
mismanagement, raise community sentiments?
Population myths
in India, China
One often hears in India population as the main cause of all problems.
How many times you have heard even such extreme statements "the root of all the problems of our
country is population”?
Similar is the case with China. One does not know so clearly about
China -- what people there talk but what we know is that politicians
there have gone to the extent of forcing one child policy or even forced
abortions.
Let us check the data
about population, to see how far such sentiments are right. By and large generally people are
even confused about what to count. They will say in India "Oh! billion people,
How can we survive?"
To measure crowd what
one should count is not total population but how many people live per
square kilometer
It does not take one much effort to understand
that it is not the total population which matters. After all India has much
bigger land area than most countries too, it is natural that its population will be large. So what one should count is
population per square kilometer in the country - the density of population (that
measures how crowded a country is ).
Now look at the tables
given below - all figures in this article are from those
given by UN agencies ( http://esa.un.org/unpp ) or data
given by CIA
about different countries (
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
) or from
wikipedia.
Density of population
- number of people per kilometer in some countries
India
–336
Japan 339
Singapore
6336
Netherlands 395
Pakistan
198
China 138
UK 246
USA 31
The above data
shows that crowd in Japan or Netherlands etc. is at least as much as
India. In
China it is even far less. Why then many Indians and Chinese are so
paranoid about crowd in their country? Very few of them perhaps have
gone through this data. They just hear some thing and become
sentimental about it. We will later on explore why this myth might have
been created. But before that another important aspect.
What matters
is not total land but how much of the land in a country can have
agriculture (Arable land)
It is not so much the total land which matters. What is important is
how much
of the land is arable and can have some agriculture. Here is the
approximate data of arable land.
Arable land
India 48%
China 15%
Pakistan 24%
Japan 11%
USA 18%
UK 23%
Netherlands 21%
Only USA is better placed than India
If now
you take these two figures and calculate how many people are there
per square kilometers of arable land in some of these countries -
rough figures are India
650, USA 180, China 900 Pakistan 800 UK 1000 Netherlands 2000
Japan 3000. All the talk of population being main problem in India or
China seems to be far fetched. Even if you look at expected figures in
2050 of population density per square kilometers of arable land in India it is less than those given above for UK,
Netherlands, Japan etc.
Opposite
seems to be true for India- Mother nature has given a lot more to India
than most countries
Above figures show that India is much better placed in terms of
available land for agriculture than almost all other countries except
for USA ( which is far more richer than any other country in this
respect). One should admire actually countries like UK, Netherlands or
Japan. How well they have done despite such an adverse land conditions.
This is not all. Most of other countries, I have mentioned including
most parts of USA have much more severe weather. As we study in our
schools (in India), Himalayas protect us from cold (India). There are
very few
countries in world like India where sun shines for almost 9-10 months
continuously and still it rains enough in the remaining 2-3 months (some
places even 500", though most of India gets just right amount to live
comfortable life). Even in winter, it is pleasure to come out of your
home and walk. In most of India you feel quite warm outside than
inside home. Heating is not really needed. Most homes any way do not
have heating. There is
almost no snow, except in mountains. Except for summer two months in
North India, most of India has pleasant weather for whole year. Even
in Kashmir valley in
Himalayas, weather is much more pleasant
than most of the above mentioned countries in winter. In most of India one
can
grow 3 crops in a year. Our country is quite protected with Arab lands
on one
side and south East Asian countries, Thailand etc. on the other side. They protect us from
cyclones (or hurricanes). We never had strong ones like the ones USA or
Japan
get.
What more
one wants from god ? (I use word god -- as in India, nature and god
are
not considered too different)
If you add all these above gifts further to figures I gave above, there
is only one conclusion one can draw. "Shame on us why we have not done
well. With such resources, why should we have so large number of working
people for whom, we can not provide basic minimal standard of life?" You
will also wonder what our politicians, managers, intellectuals are
doing?
I think many of these type of myths like population myth have been made popular during last 50 years by leaders of leftists and Congress parties, who were ruling the country. They established a feudal structure rather than a democratic structure of decision making, did not manage our economy and administration at all. They invented all such excuses to make our very enterprising, hardworking and liberal society's average guy, feel as if he is not working and managing while it was them, who were not working and managing.
To
sustain feudal rule and hide corruption, one needs slogans about
socialism, communism or myths about population
To hide their mismanagement they create such myths. "we have to have socialist economy", "remove poverty", "population is the biggest problem" (I think Chinese have been doing more or less the same, they have recently created one more similar myths, "China -to be world-power number 1" etc.) . In both these countries, in the name of socialist economy, it is the feudalism which ruled and still is powerful. False ideas about populations etc. are popularized. Hangover of this past era is quite visible in general thinking also. For example even in these hubpages, you will see many writing about population being the main or biggest problem in India (or China).
While we just
talked about socialism, in countries like USA, Japan or those in
West Europe etc., it was implemented.
Why
did USA, Western European countries, Japan or even tiny countries
like Singapore did much better than us. There seems to be only one
reason. They did not just restrict to slogans but implemented the so
called socialism. It became a part of basic culture, during last
century, in all these countries to create an environment in which every
working person earns enough to provide to himself and his family a
minimal life of decency. Thus in these countries infra-structure of
good schools, universities, roads, rail network, housing, telecom network and
entertainment and information network via tv, newspapers movies, food
security etc. was developed. We have woken up now after decades of messing up our
country. China did wake up two decades earlier than us. But both India
and China are still a little far from adopting the above goal of
providing a minimal life style to family of every working person, with
a full heart. Still a lot of things are lost in such useless slogans
created by feudalism structure. Let us hope that we remain focused on
this goal and make it as basic driving force for our economic, business
and development growth.
We do not need to worry about these trivial
issues
and get lost. We should start managing our affairs better, improve our
economy.
Make our cities better, which are among most polluted ones. Build up
infra
structure better. We should worry about
providing
roads, jobs, roti, kapada, makan (bread, clothing, home) etc. Make
our cities villages, roads etc. clean. Make our land green, all this will certainly lead to an environment in which every
working person in India
can provide to himself and his family a life with minimal standard of
living. My assessment is that if we remain focused on this goal we can
achieve in India this goal within a decade. China can perhaps do even
faster if it uses its own strength and richness rather than currency manipulations and it moves away from above mentioned slogans and a false
feudalistic generated pride like being most powerful country etc.
Population myths in USA, Europe, Japan etc.
It may be interesting to note that we are not the only ones lost in
such useless myths. One of the big issues in all political games in
USA, Western Europe etc. is immigration policy. Japanese are also very
particular about their race etc. Many in these countries are worried
about their race purity getting lost and number of immigrants already
too much more etc. Now let us see some statistics which may throw light
on what they will most likely be forced to do in next few decades.
Percentage of
people above 65 in 2010 and in 2050
year 2010 2050
India 4.9% 13.7%
China 8.2% 23.3%
USA 13% 21%
Europe 16% 27%
Japan 22% 38%
Pakistan 4.1% 10%
Percentage of
people between 25-65 in 2010 and 2050 and the year in which total population starts decreasing
year 2010 2050 population starts decreasing
China 55% 51% 2030
India 45% 45.2 % after 2050
USA 52% 50% after 2050
Europe 56% 46% 2015
Japan 54% 42% 2010
Pakistan 39% 51% after 2050
Aging process in these countries as well as China
I have given in figures above the percentages of people above the age of 65
and those between 25-65. Reason I have chosen these figures is that it
is reasonable to assume that people between the age of 25-65 will form
the main working force in a country. It is this age-group which will
support the older population for keeping them better.
These figures tell you a lot. For example one of the trouble with Europe and Japan is that 40 years from now there won't be enough Europeans or Japanese to pay taxes etc. The number of people in the age group 25-65 and those above 65 will be almost equal in these countries. Even in China and USA percentage of people who have to be supported will be much higher. In all these countries average age will increase considerably.
East Europe also has similar problems. In countries like Russia it is a serious issue. Some months back I traveled in interior of Hungary. Every where in the country you see pressure due to deceasing population. Apart from natural aging process, emigration from there has also resulted in enhancing this problem quite a bit.
USA, Europe will have no option but to have immigrant younger
population from other countries. China should rethink about its one
child policy
How can such a large older percentage
of population be supported by the younger lot. There will be indeed
financial and sociological problems. Some experts feel this aging has
played a crucial role in current crisis too and should be considered
important factor while trying to solve these problems. (see references
below). USA and Europe will have not much option but to have younger
immigrant population to keep burden of older people in proper ratio.
Some of their current problems are because they adopted wrong
immigration policies.
Immigration and human rights issues in USA, UK, Europe and Canada are often used to satisfy feudal rulers in Muslim and other countries for international (dirty) politics.
As an example I remember one well known music director from India, a Muslim. He was alleged to be involved in the murder of some guy in music business, with the help of an international terrorist Dawood Ibrahim. He ran away and immigrated easily to UK with "human right issue (?)," that he may not get right treatment in India because he is a Muslim. Of course such human right organizations did not perhaps mention to judges that India is among the countries with largest Muslim population and that its President was a Muslim and its richest person at that time was also a Muslim. Actually India may be one country which protects normal human rights much more than practically any other country just out of culture in the country, apart from the laws. Muslims in India must be among most protected and supported ones. But Americans and people from European countries generally declare opposite, aim seems to be to please Pakistan and other Muslim countries for their oil issues or arms sales etc. They also use their power in international institutions etc. for this purpose and even use money power to create or support false human right organizations in countries like India.
Just two days back a Canadian official declared Boarder Security Force (BSF) of India to be a killer organization and refused even a visitor visa to an officer of BSF. Americans have declared one of the best chief ministers of India to be a human right violator against Muslims and denied him a visitor's visa. Even when he did not apply for a visa, Americans declare practically every year that they will not give him a visa. BSF must have saved 100's of thousands of lives and human rights of millions. BSF and Indian army are the organizations which must have saved 100's of thousands of Muslims in Kashmir from terrorist attacks unleashed by Pakistani forces. Many of its officers are Muslims. BSF has the same discipline as Indian army. India itself has many government and nongovernmental organization which consider very seriously any human right violation complain and punish person responsible if needed. We all know what type of human rights armies of some Muslim countries follow. Have you heard any time officials of these countries talking about human right violations there? Why then Americans, Britishers or Canadians are bent on playing such false dramas against Indian officials. Right now because of their trouble in af-pak sector Americans, Britishers, Canadians or Europeans are ready to declare any thing to please Pakistan or other such countries. It is these issues and such dirty posing or international politics which are used much more to decide type of immigrants who are given visa rather than what they need. Then the same ruling lobbies in these countries start raising sentiments and issues of immigrants etc. Records of many criminals, smugglers, terrorists from countries like India show that it is such people who emigrate to some of these countries easily compared to an average well educated guy.
One might feel that these may be among negligible cases. But over the years they pile up. Like now Americans are worried about drug trade or crime via immigrants. It may be interesting to study country and religion wise demography of immigrants and effects it had.
People in USA, India and China should ask themselves why they have not done as well as some of European countries
In the other direction Pakistan's younger population is going to increase. Pakistan and perhaps whole world should worry about what will happen if it does not create proper education set up for this population and they are forced to spend time in violence teaching Madrasas or terrorist networks.
The above population Statistics suggest that USA is almost 4-5 times richer than countries like UK, Netherlands or Germany. Americans should ask themselves why their lifestyle does not reflect this richness. In terms of style of life most European countries actually have over all perhaps better life than USA (medical facilities, pension schemes, unemployment benefits, scholarships for higher education, rail infra structure, electricity infra structure - are these not better in Europe than USA?). India and China are still far behind in using their resources properly.
A separate article may be needed to discuss some of these issues, I may write about it later.
Refernces
I had discussed in an article talking about financial turmoil
population issues in USA. Like their population above 55 may jump to 25% and how that can have
consequences in social behavior.
http://hubpages.com/hub/financial-turmoil-Indian-situation--II
2. I always knew
of course that demography figures are important. But I learnt from some
of articles of the well known American financial expert Spengler (David P. Goldman) that they say a lot more about even current financial or
sociological behavior. For example Spengler could find demographic
figures showing some thing about current Greece crisis or earlier
American troubles with Financial turmoil. Here are links to two of his
many interesting articles.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JJ15Dj08.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/LE11Dj04.html
photos taken from the following
sources
http://ic2.pbase.com/u8/bmcmorrow/upload/37342114.DSC_0079.JPG
http://im.rediff.com/news/2004/feb/04inter.jpg
http://www.urban75.org/photos/newyork/images/new-york-176.jpg
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CommentsLoading...
Hi! Ralph.
Yes indeed.
Very good statistics with logic here. Thank you. I will bookmark this so that I can refer to it in the future.
Thanks ngureco.
It is an interesting article and the data. I blame the government and officials for the mismanagement of the resource that we have. and I think corruption is one of the sources and root of this mismanagement, which is eminent under congress rule.
And the political parties are giving subsidies just to win the elections without even doing a primary analysis of the impact.
Today, if we look at the AP government, it had brought up lot of schemes under Y.S. Rajashekhar Reddy's rule just to please the people. Its unique scheme of 1kg of rice per 2 rupee itself put a burden of 2000 Crores on the government.
The Government has gone too far in giving free stuff that it does not know how to come back as it afraid of loosing elections next time.But at least the people need to be educated enough to understand the situation.
Every politician should think of resources for next generations too, which is missing in the country.
I am planning to write an article on situation in AP.
Hi! TheGlacier
I agree with you completely. Giving free service or rice at 2 rupees a kilo are just gimmicks or what I call feudalism in the name of socialism. One does not need free or cheap services, one needs to give enough income for every working person so that he/she can afford minimal services and happily pays for it. What one needs is bringing a minimal standard of life as a business and growth proposition. It should be creating better business atmosphere, creating infra-structure, banking facilities, housing etc.
Actually we have made our country in last decade quite polluted and dirty. Even if government properly makes scheme to just clean up our country it will generate enough employment.
Let us hope we get into right path sooner.
That should have been decades
The underground humiliation for failing in controlling the increase in population rate in India is some what reduced by the statistical figures given in this hub.
Hi! Roychoudhury
The whole idea of controlling population artificially seems to be quite wrong. It gets controlled automatically with economic development and creating minimal life style. In fact balance gets tilted to other side very quickly as the experience in Japan and Western countries show. One has to just have the right balance.
wow..this is good work..u did a great job..
Thank u pisean
Where is government for the people, by the people...? Give each a seed: not grants !
Great hub.
Thanks dallas! agree with you completely.
Great view!
Thanks a lot Micky Dee!
What a hub!! It destroyed all myths!! Just a point to add, I think today's growth of China and India is directly proportional to its population!! While the American and European markets saturated, India and China became the focus because with our huge population the market cant shrink or get saturated!!
A sarcastic addition: Where technology cant, manpower can!!
All the kudos for a great hub!!
Welcome dreamreachout! Yes it is interesting, perceptions about such issues change so quickly. A so called weakness might become strength in no time.
One of my friend says the fertility of the land should also be considered instead of just calculating the arable land alone. The sol in India is used for agriculture for thousands of years where as USA land is not used even for hundreds of years. So the land in USA is more fertile and would give more outcome compared to Indian land.
Though I am not convinced with this argument, I wanted to know your view on it.
Hi! The Glacier
Welcome back. He may be right when you want to go into detailed analysis one should look at all possible aspects.
Also it is clear that USA has far better advantages practically 2-3 times better than any other country.
Quite similar is situation with India. Whether fretile land or not - how many country are there where 3 crops can be produced in a year in about 1/2 of land. I think even USA does not have such a situation.
Even if you count once we are in far better position than say UK, Netherlands, Japan China etc. Why should we not plan to do better than them. That was my main theme.
Excellent hub that deals with many ofthe misconceptions peddled by the media. The one that really stood out for me was the amount of arable land. Awesome Rating!
Thanks a lot Billy! I was going through just now your interesting article on oil disaster etc.
Soumyasrajan this is a great hub. I learned so much about the world and its views of the west that it will take days for me to process all the information. While I was reading I did some research and came up with some theories of my own.
India has a low unemployment rate compared too much of the world, however over half of the employment is listed in agriculture. Without more employment in industrial areas the country will not produce as many specialized jobs as are necessary to require that money be spent on education. India spends a lower percentage of GDP on education than many large countries and there percentage of educated citizens reflects this. India is financially growing faster than most countries in the world so it is important to educate the people or crime will eventually run rampant.
I think the United States citizens have a better quality of daily living than most European nations despite rumors to the contrary. I can show you flat screen televisions, air conditionings, and full refrigerators in the poorest neighborhoods (though there are those who do without these things also). Opportunities really do exist here for anyone who tries and lives within their means. No one is starving to death. I also think our medical system is one of the best in the world, we do not have the long lines and waiting lists (yet) that many countries with socialized medicine have.
Our educational system does need much work and that is due to a broken system of local government financing education for their neighborhoods instead of states equally distributing funds. And our infrastructure is not as good as Europe's because we spend too much of our tax money on a hopeless drug war domestically and overblown military and humanitarian campaigns on foreign soil. Over all I agree that the United States does need to rework its education system and infrastructure.
I hope India improves theirs as well.
Best wishes to you, and thanks again for this great hub.
John B Badd
Hi! John
Thanks for your comments. I quite agree with you on most of them accept for some ordering you are doing.
I have spent quite a bit of time in India, USA and have often been in Europe-USA also for months. Perhaps you are also like me.
I wrote a little about strengths of USA and India to face financial turmoil etc. in 3 articles I wrote some months back. Last one was http://hubpages.com/hub/Financial-Turmoil---Indian
I want to write more on similar observations/ideas, when I get time. Though much more analysis is needed specially by people like you. I see that just like me you enjoy writing about almost any topics. You are in fact doing much more - I enjoyed your chapters of novel with elves and man etc. very much.
I agree with you completely about lack of investment in education sector in India by government. In fact most of education in India is because of private investments in Schools and Colleges. I have been talking about it in some of my lectures. When I tell people that in some of States in USA about 50% of their budget is spent on education, while in India it is less than 3-4%. They are quite surprised. Their perception specially of USA is quite different.
Actually School education in India is quite good (problem is it is not available to many because mostly it is run by private investment), it does create well disciplined student. I often point out to people that we in our undergraduate colleges make a well disciplined guy/girl quite undisciplined while in USA they make quite undisciplined one coming out of school, a very disciplined one during undergraduate education.
I think medical system in USA has admirable capacity to to take emergency care and to save life but I am not sure that your perception that it is best is so right. While it is technically admirable, it looks like that it suffers from corruption and fear of legalities. Doctors seem to be more worried about legal aspects than quick treatment. I think general practitioners in
India take better care of patients and it is affordable without any insurance for even lower middle class person, though hospital care for insured guy is better in USA. But I feel over all in Europe it may be better. Government investment there has given some assets. Though it has also problems as you point out.
About quality of life I am not again so sure that your perception may be right. Most of the things you describe are also available in Europe (I mean Western Europe) + they have much easier access to higher education and very well run infra structure of public transport, which is almost nonexistent now in USA. I think destruction in USA of mass transport systems like railroads etc. was a big mistake. Though some of the socialistic and "government taking care of people" ideas in Europe has brought some problems too. Like a lot of very talented people roam around doing nothing just because they can get government money to live well.
Over all I prefer USA model of government facilitating building of infra-structure via private business and management. That seems to be only example which has brought success in so called socialistic goal of a minimal life style for every working person's family. I hope India continues at a faster pace the same. It doing now its journey on similar path, which it should have started 5-6 decades back.
Thank you for this exposition of exhaustive research you have diligently performed. I love the statistics and I agree with most of your points. I beg to differ about two things. Americans should ask themselves why they aren't as well off as Europeans? I have been all over Europe and all over America and Americans are better off. And Europe is committing demographic suicide, while going broke in the process. Half of the continent is bankrupt. Secondly, the USA absolutely did not become wealthy because of socialism. The complete opposite is true. The USA became the most wealthy nation in the history of the earth because of Free Enterprise. And the Liberty that comes with it. Thank you.
James you have to admit that with that freedom comes responsability.I could point to many inconsistancies where free enterprise and the greatest good or the good of all the people do not neceassarily coincide with each other.The private federal reserve banks being at the very top of free enterprise system.Money or capital is at the crux of the free enterprise system.We all know for a fact that our government is controlled by the money supply,or lack of supply.The world has succunbed to control by the money creators.
Hi! James and Someonewhoknows
Thanks for your interesting comments.
James it is difficult to measure who is wealthier. After all wealth should be measured in terms of life style and opportunities available to an average person and life style available to almost every working person. While indeed opportunities available in USA still is far far better than any country, on average most Americans have to give too many hours and much harder work to get a minimal life style compared to Europe.
But even if one accepts ok over all USA is richer it is not surely 3-4 times richer. These Statistics show that resources it has are of that order, actually much more. My idea of asking Americans and Indians to question this aspect was not so much to try to go in past but use these Statistics as a generating force to create more business, more opportunity, better life style out of it.
I feel currently Americans have unnecessarily lost heart. They are not seeing their strengths. They are getting lost in useless fights. In India they are lost in fights like this for decades. I wrote a little bit about strengths of both these countries in those financial turmoil articles.
I quite agree with you about "Secondly, the USA absolutely did not become wealthy because of socialism. The complete opposite is true. The USA became the most wealthy nation in the history of the earth because of Free Enterprise. And the Liberty that comes with it."
At the same time what someonewhoknows points out is also quite in order. If you see carefully they are not so much in conflict as one might imagine initially.
What I admire in USA most that idea of so called "Socialism" (a minimal life style for every working person) can not be forced by governments and administrators. The desire for socialism comes from business people, industries etc. They build up technologies (one example is Garbage truck which allows driver to pick up garbage in cold winter without getting out in freezing cold), and working atmosphere for their employees and general public to bring so called Socialism (I admire Ford most for the fact that he introduced 8 hour working days and finance companies to finance loans for its employees for car housing etc.) In so called socialist countries and even in Europe these things are either not done at all even now (like India still does not have good financing systems) or are forced in a little feudal inefficient manner by governments, rulers etc.
Even now in financial turmoil if you see the debate about what caused it is much more open only in USA -as I say in my articles on turmoil other countries are essentially trying to sweep it under carpet.
I think there can not be much dispute that finance, good life style should be available to family of every working person. To do that any country does require some discipline (as someonewhoknows says). Only dispute can be about how much of it should be forced by government, politicians. There I tend to agree with James, as little as possible. In past in USA it has been done as a part of culture and it was used even as a business growth.
Let us hope still Americans find their cultural strength to over come quagmires they have got into. Still there are many Fords in society in USA who can do it. I think there are many in India too. Only government should create an atmosphere for them to achieve their potential rather than trying to control them. Let us hope it happens in both these countries as well as some others.
Wow,
i never knew that China had such a low percentage of land that can be used for agriculture! Very interesting article. I am very new to this site, and still trying to find my way around... but very glad I stumbled upon your article :)
Nice statistics, we all Indians know that these politicians always think about themselves and their parties no matter how other countries think about us.
Hi! Suraj
Thanks fro visit. Yes quite true for many politicians
Hi Soumyasrajan,
I have to admit I am not well traveled. I only know about European health care from what others have told me. I know general health care is available to everyone, which it was not here (I am not sure what we have here now, I will find out in 2014 I guess), but I also know that there are longer waits for doctor visits because of this (and a shortage of doctors).
Now from everything I have heard the education system is better in Europe. I have to investigate to find out why, we need to improve education in the United States and you need to improve it greatly in India. I do not agree with Europe's other social programs. We have issues with our own welfare system being taken advantage of here and I want to see it stop (not welfare just the advantage taking). People need to be helped up but not supported. It goes back to the whole "give a man a fish and he eats for a day, teach him to fish and he eats for a lifetime" saying. We need to teach all of our citizens to fish, in both the US and India. I would like to see 99.9 % literacy around the globe to be perfectly honest.
Take care, till next time.
Hi! Harry
Welcome! You have much better expertise than me about China. I was also a little surpirsed about this.
Hi! John
I agree with you completely. What you say is much more true for India than USA. We are still very far from a minimal life style for every working person principle (which should obviously include good education, housing, food, telecommunication, transport, public transport etc.)
Actually not only India should try to improve its own people its business and industry development should include helping countries in its neighborhood also improving lives there. All this can be done as business and economy growth proposition in all countries not just a social idea.
I quite agree with your example of fishing. That should be the main basic ideas of policies. But about teaching to fish in India is a bit out of place. In India more than 40% of people are vegetarian. I am myself a vegetarian. Efficient agricultural methods is more right idea. More important fro India is to have green energy development. It spends almost 70% of its earnings to buy oil. While green energy can generate not only all its energy it can create big employment and business opportunities in rural areas.
All of these figures are very revealing. To me what they reveal is that our populations have in common a seeming lack of spiritual evolution - when we begin to see that what we do truly effects others and develop a more compassionate way of living, perhaps our greed will no longer allow us to use others' labor and not provide a good life for them also. I don't think any political system can answer the need for generosity of spirit. Certainly capitalism does not genuinely provide for people, it only encourages their greed. I am only encouraged when I meet and hear about people who are less self-interested and more community focused. Thank you for this thoughtful hub.
Hi! mega1
Thanks a lot for the visit. Nice comment. Of course I agree heartily.
A beautiful statistical overview! And this also illustrates why population control is a double edged sword. The Chinese "One child policy" promotes a demographic disaster.
I'm a great optimist. I always get the feeling things will turn out ok :)
Thanks a lot Bhagwad. I quite agree with you. I am also very optimistic.
I enjoyed this very much. I must state I agree with Mr. James Watkins - "free enterprise" produces more than just freedom - it produces income. I hope the Internet continues in this same fashion.
Speaking of which - any predictions about the world population and the Internet? Who is our target market - mainly the USA? When will China and India overtake the US in the world wide web?
Hi! GmaGoldie
Thanks a lot for your comment. I completely agree with you about free Enterprise and that spirit inherent in internet.
About your other question, I am reminded of Naryana Murthy's (former chariman of Infosys a large computer company) answer to question during a TV interview.
Some body asked him "when will India have companies like Microsoft".
He answered nicely "just now only in USA Eco-system allows such companies to go to this level starting from almost nothing. Even in Europe that Eco system does not exist in that manner"
I hope that Eco-system gets created not just in India and China but also all over world.
I also hope strength of this ecosystem gets USA back into its right mode to get out of this quagmire it has got into with this china looking policy instead of its own production and financial turmoil caused by it and things like fighting wars on both sides in Af-Pak sector etc.
I do not know about others but I have confidence in strengths of India and USA (countries where I have spent a lot of time ) etc.
These are very interesting and useful statistics, which I'll bookmark for future reference.
I don’t automatically accept the words of politicos or pundits; I’ve seen too much deceit and broken promises.
Hi! amillar
Thanks a lot for your visit and comments. I quite agree with you. Such Statistics say a lot. These figures I took from sites I have mentioned in references. Your strong article and clear picture it gives says clearly that you will not accept words of politicos. Today no body should do that even of main stream journalists, with out verifying facts.
Hi Soumyasrajan,
Thanks for your useful article. Thumbs up!
Jyoti Kothari
Hi! Jyoti
Thanks a lot for visit and appreciation.
I greatly appreciate your in depth research, as well as the timeliness of this article. Great job!
Thanks a lot RunAbstract! Your comment is so generous. I wish some thing could be done to make over all life of an average guy better with these ideas.
entertaining article which shows you can do almost anything with statistics to prove a point. I would disagree with a lot of the stats you chose, not because they are wrong (they aren't) but because they are not necessarily the most appropriate. But that doesnt matter; I agree with the main point that some of them lead to that population increase tends to the naturally finite, rather than continuing indefinitely exponentially. So whereas in the interim we just may have a potential problem feeding an increasing population, in the long term the population decrease will present considerable challenges to an economic system such as ours that is based on (almost) exponential growth (of consumption). Much more interesting and much more challenging than the cheap and simple screaming about needing to reduce population. Sadly that will be after my time so I wont see it. But maybe just as well...
Thanks a lot paul for visit and interesting comment!
You summarize well the main point. You are a biologist so you may have interesting way of selecting data. I wonder why you feel:
1. "you can do almost any thing with Statistics to prove a point" (as if I am interpreting incorrectly from data or giving data selectively to draw my point). Here figures are so simple and direct I do not see what wrong inference I can draw from them. Please elaborate a little more your Remark.
I know very well the misuse of Statistics. I have taught some times to very young people also points of the well known book "How to lie with Statistics", so I will be the last person to try to misuse Statistical data or not be careful about it. I did choose only very few figures deliberately, to keep the article simple and readable.
I chose figures of amount of arable land per person to find agriculture related product -strength or potential of a country. What else is more appropriate for that? I did not give figures of other types of wealth in country like minerals, hydroelectric or other energy potential sun shine available etc. But they do not show any thing much different.
In general I feel nothing shines brighter than truth. So I always like to get my point in my articles out of truth.
Of course it is possible that I may have neglected some information which can reveal a little more. If you feel so please do mention that.
2. "I would disagree with a lot of the stats you chose, not because they are wrong (they aren't) but because they are not necessarily the most appropriate."
Again with your expertise it will be nice to know what type of data is most appropriate?
About your last point, I am optimistic. Let us hope it happens much before your time or my time is over.
no my friend, I am not suggesting you interpret incorrectly, but numbers, statistics can be hellishly confusing because they are so simple and intuitive in many cases. My general attitude is: there are at least two sides to everything. Even statistics.
First of all let us look at inhabitants per square km. That is simply a division between the number of inhabitants over the total square km's a country consists of. But it doesn't tell me anything about the usable square km's a country has. The figures become dramatically different if we look at the quality of those sq km's. A country such as Saudi Arabia or some of the Sahel countries have a large proportion of their territory which is not inhabitable, not for large numbers anyway, without extreme measures being taken to ensure their survival. Much of Siberia is another case in point. Or Greenland. So that simple statistic, telling as it is, only presents a partial picture of density.Potential density. Actual density may be very different.
Then the arable land statistic. This should be more reflexive of the actual situation,and it is, but only tells me something about, say, potential food production, not actual, today. Looking at the country I originally come from, Holland, which in your numbers has 21% which is indeed correct, a significant proportion of that is given over to growing flowers, bulbs, shrubs and trees for the garden trade. Here in North and South America we see an increasing amount of crops being grown not for food but for energy, biomass. And then of course there is the argument about crops for meat production which in terms of land used is rather wasteful. Thus as a statistic for supporting a certain population size it is deficient. Theoretical. And even then it doesn't give us the whole picture; it would very well be possible although maybe not desirable to create more arable land for food production if we cleared a large number of the suburbs, which are real land-eaters, moved the population into higher density housing and brought that area back into production. Conversely we could also go into high density agriculture, which is what we do here in the Lower Mainland of BC, in the form of glasshouses or "hothouses" as we call them. I wouldn't dare argue that any of this is desirable, but possible and therefore potential it is..
So no, I would absolutely not argue that you mis-used your statistics; you use them exactly as they were intended when compiled by their authors, to give some comparable measure in a generally broad argument. But be careful when you go into the detailed argument.
The one I love though is your population age/decreasing statistic and I would dearly like to know a bit more about how this was compiled. Was it just birth/death rates? Did it take into account our frantic efforts to cure every disease so we can live "forever" resulting in a higher proportion being over 65 in future years? Did it take account of migration under different sets of circumstances? Nah.. I won't bother with global warming or climate change for now... But playing around with those statistics a bit under different scenarios would probably tell us a lot more than the bare bones population/sq km or arable land %.
No, you raise a lot of interesting arguments, some of which I may not agree with or dont know enough about but I wholeheartedly endorse that the whole discussion blaming everything on "population" is cheap, to an extent racist actually because we never apply it to ourselves, always others, and a "red herring" if promoted as the simple answer. There are no simple answers. Once more, congratulations with your article. I enjoyed it and it made me think. What more can I or anyone else ask for...
Hi! Paul
Thanks a lot for your response.
I did not take Statistical data from any other article. I had this idea for a long time that population density per square mile of arable land is an important data for judging the agriculture and related economic potential of a country. I got this feeling once some years back, when I was looking at data at the CIA Fact book site on different countries (later I verified figures from UN site on population- both I have given the links in the article). I judged myself that this is much more important figure then just density of population. I have not seen any other article so far which uses this figure of density of population per square mile of arable land. So there is at least no question that I am using data from some other article and my views may reflect views of those authors and they may have compiled data to reflect that view.
It is more in other direction. By looking at India and other countries in South Asia and some in South east Asia etc. I had always felt that myth spread in these countries that "we are poor" has been just spread by those in power and their technical/economic advisers to hide their mismanagement. They have used such myths and slogans of "socialism" and "working for poor" etc. for last 50 years and have not done any thing. For last 30 years, I have been visiting USA, Europe often. The way things are managed in most of Western Europe and USA made me realize even more this fact. I feel a country like India is much more rich in resources than almost any country in Europe. It is also weather wise much easier to live in India, where in most parts sun shines for 8-9 months for full day. In fact I admire the way people have made life livable in countries with much harder weather conditions in Europe, USA. I feel it is highly shameful on part of people in India that with such gifts they are allowing so many people (who work on regular jobs) to live with almost nothing.
With these ideas built up I started looking at Statistics. Does that confirm what I have in mind and it did. I feel this is quite good use of Statistics. In fact this is the way it should be used. Your ideas may be wrong and Statistics can tell you some times that. If it matches with your ideas, it gives you enthusiasm to study further.
I agree with you that further study is required. The article I wrote is just a beginning and a very mild beginning. For example even though very little of potential in India has been actually exploited so far but manner in which it has been exploited already creates lot of worries. Like people in many parts of India are now a little worried about water level going down in their areas. In a way you also point out the same when you mention like in Holland a lot of land is used for flowers etc. These worries are similar in India also. But still my main aim in current article, to compare them for their economic potential via agricultural land available does not change that. People in Holland are fond of growing flowers because it is a cash crop, in India for example similar worry is there about using land too much for cash crops (like sugar cane). One does require further studies and lot more to really create an atmosphere to do right things in all these countries- this aspect I agree with you. My aim of this article was indeed to start such a discussion.
About decrease in population related data -I took it from UN site (link I have given). You can look at it. It is quite carefully prepared. But I agree completely with you that one has to be careful about such data. A prediction for 30- 50 years can be completely off the mark with just one minor mistake and some unpredictable change occurring. Again my aim time being is to use it in positive direction to create some inspiration in these countries (like India, USA, China, Pakistan etc.) via this data to show to them that they can do lot more - via a model that has already worked (in Europe).
I hope you will also agree for that this much of info is quite ok.
Again it is just starting point. Much more careful studies are needed. I wish some groups and money can be found to do these studies and implement some of the ideas generated.
Finally about one more point you make - using agriculture for bio-fuels and problems it may generate. This problem is going to come. In a country like USA where perhaps less than 5% of population lives in villages or is in agriculture profession - perhaps criteria for best use will be very different than that in a country like India where a large percentage lives in villages. If a proper balance can be found to use agriculture waste for example for bio-fuel- it can make a big difference to village life in India. Long time back Gandhi used similar ideas - Khadi (a cloth hand woven) was popularized by him to give some money in hands of villagers who had very little income. It worked very well until government took over whole movement after Gandhi- in the name honoring his movement. That aspect looks attractive to me about bio-fuel.
Some of my friends who have expertize in energy via bio-objects tell me that just waste or unused part of crops like sorghum in India has potential to generate 60% of India's energy (India currently spends 70-80% of all its foreign exchange earnings on petroleum imports).
But that will require lot of research too. Time being even what is suitable process is not clear.
Though on the other hand looking at Brazil, I feel India is still just sleeping it does not use bio-fuel at all or negligible amount- in transport, electricity etc.
Great write. Most of America may look prosperous James Watkins. But having American businesses wandering around the world getting resources and cheap labor only gives American big business advantages. Most Americans that I see and know don't eat at nice restaurants or go to Europe.
Hi! Micky
Nice to hear from you. Yes you are right that idea that average person should have good life just by their own profession, seems to reducing in USA with all these turmoils. Ratio of income of top few and average person has become vulgar. Looks like top managers have got lost in path and are interested in counting their vulgar income figures only. I have to still write second part of dark ages.
I did not get time. Also I am watching carefully Wikileaks- cablegate and a similar exposure in India now called radiagate. Those exposures via web do bring in some hope of possibility of wisdom and wake up call coming back via silent majority.
But I think this urge to have minimal good life for every working person has not died down. I hope it comes back soon.
omg!! facts and figures are awesome.....
Thanks a lot athulnair for the visit!
Hi soumyasrajan, I just have a short thing to say, it's on my front page the link to GOOGLE EARTH! One can see how much uninhabited land there is, there is NO REASON for these countries to abort unborn children. I have been gathering information for a while to make a well informed hub and be able to back up my words with links. I've gone as far back in history to read of Marxism and how it got everything started!
A whole group of American girls are for this infanticide to be brought to American, it's got to be stopped from spreading. :(
I remember back in school when my teacher liked to make round tables and long discussions about this kind of thing. Really like the way you write. Keep it up!
Hi! TheMonk
Thanks a lot for the visit and appreciation. Yes not just the article, comments and discussion is equally important part of hub. It is also, apart from enjoyment, a learning process, different views ideas etc. It does not end with just commenting. I enjoy seeing what do the author of hub or others feel about a comment.
Hi! Katharella
Thanks a lot for visit. Over all agree with you, that is exactly my theme, we surely have enough resources to feed every child. There surely is no reason that by law or social customs one should think of aborting a child. That is inhuman. The right about such decisions should remain with the girl who carries the child. She should have all rights to decide about her child, born or unborn.
Very well written, but is not a fact that in case the population is controlled everything will be better, more food per capita, more income per head, better health etc ?
Hi! Singh
Thanks a lot for the visit and comment. I am not so sure that the opinion that if population is controlled every thing will be better, is right. Such opinions were indeed there among experts for a long time, mainly because even today expert's opinions are highly influenced by Western countries. It was much more true in 50's-80's, when these opinions were created.
But today Japan and many Western countries find themselves in a situation which is worrying, because as the above Statistics show, they may very soon face the situation that much less people will be working and supporting much larger number of older people, which may make life difficult for the over all population of the country. It is a bit surprising that experts in those years did not think of such effects in highly controlled population. Indeed immigration should help them to keep over all population -age better. But political sentiment in these countries is against immigration.
At the same time it is also true that no birth control etc. as a religion issue is equally harmful.
I think much more important is to create a proper management system which allows infra-structure and social environment to be created so that every working person can provide a decent life to his/her family. The fact that this has been more or less achieved in UK, Netherlands etc. with much bigger density of population and much less resources than India for example, while we are still quite far from this goal does show that population control is certainly not a major tool in achieving this goal- it is just a myth and slogan used for hiding excuses.
Though some ideas of growth of population and how to manage/balance it, surely should have place in plans to achieve such a goal.
i always believed that earth can easily accomodate at least three times the existing population numbers,,there is no shortage of natural resources on earth,whatever shortage is there its all artificial,,,the day solar energy will be in use to its optimum capacity all the current myths about population will go a begging,,
I agree Aniruddha. Fifity years projections are much higher than 3 times Aniruddha. But I think even that will be easily accommodated by earth. I quite agree with you
Ralph Deeds Level 6 Commenter 2 years ago
Interesting data and viewpoint! Good government is so important and so rare.